NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
3-0 | Road
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
2-0 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
AGGIES
100%
LOBOS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (New Mexico)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)
UNM By 1-7 points
15.3%
UNM By 8-14 points
25.3%
NMSU By 1-7 points
4.8%
NMSU By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico
88
NEW MEXICO
New Mexico State
73
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
New Mexico
71
NEW MEXICO
New Mexico State
78
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lobos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lobos (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
UNM @ NMSU
68 - 76
Dec 7, 2024
NMSU @ UNM
89 - 83
Dec 15, 2023
UNM @ NMSU
73 - 72
Dec 2, 2023
NMSU @ UNM
62 - 106
Dec 6, 2021
NMSU @ UNM
78 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+8.6% more
New Mexico: 12.6
vs
New Mexico State: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
New Mexico: 68.0%
vs
New Mexico State: 65.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
New Mexico: 46.1%
vs
New Mexico State: 44.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
New Mexico State: 11.2
vs
New Mexico: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNM Score
88.0
68
NMSU Score
73.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 30.0
31.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.5 / 12.6
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 46.1
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 68.0
77.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 34.5
35.0 / 36.0
Steals
10.3 / 9.5
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.6
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
Advantage
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
NMSU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
UNM
NMSU
UNM
ML
61%
19-12
57%
21-16
67%
20-10
74%
25-9
ATS
65%
20-11
57%
21-16
67%
20-10
74%
25-9
TTL
45%
14-17
41%
15-22
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …