Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Utes SHSU @ UTAH

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

1-1  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 9:00 PM ET
Jon M. Huntsman Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTESUTAH

3-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
100%
📊
UTES
0%
BEARKATS --
UTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Utah)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 UtesUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

24.2%

Utes Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

SHSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SHSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
SAM HOUSTON
88
UTAH
Simulated Score
62
SAM HOUSTON
76
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Utes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Utes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 SHSU @ UTAH 79 - 85
Nov 17, 2022 SHSU @ UTAH 65 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.0% more
Utah: 14.6 vs Sam Houston: 13.0
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Utah: 46.5% vs Sam Houston: 44.4%
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
Sam Houston: 12.1 vs Utah: 9.9
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Sam Houston: 6.4 vs Utah: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 81.0 79
UTAH Score 88.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 31.3 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.0 14.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.2 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 44.4 43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 76.0 80.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 39.6 46.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.4 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 12.1 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
UTAH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
SHSU
UTAH
SHSU
ML
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
ATS
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 13-19
48% 16-17
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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