Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Waves UNCO @ PEPP

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

2-0  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 9:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

2-1  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
WAVES
100%
BEARS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Northern Colorado)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

96.4%

Waves Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCO -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)

UNCO By 1-7 points

10.7%

UNCO By 8-14 points

21.6%

PEPP By 1-7 points

2.7%

PEPP By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
81
NORTHERN COLORADO
63
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
70
NORTHERN COLORADO
74
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Waves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Waves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UNCO @ PEPP 88 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.5% more
Northern Colorado: 7.5 vs Pepperdine: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
Northern Colorado: 42.7% vs Pepperdine: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Northern Colorado: 51.4% vs Pepperdine: 48.7%
Blocks (L5) +88.3% more
Pepperdine: 2.9 vs Northern Colorado: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 81.0 88
PEPP Score 63.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 42.7 22.0 / 35.0
Assists 18.2 / 18.7 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.5 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 51.4 38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 74.4 67.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 39.4 38.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.5 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.2 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
UNCO
PEPP
UNCO
ML
62% 20-12
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
66% 21-11
ATS
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
69% 22-10
66% 21-11
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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