Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolverines @ Bulldogs UVU @ FRES

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

2-1  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

2-2  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
WOLVERINES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Utah Valley)
WolverinesUVU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

97.7%

Bulldogs Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)

UVU By 1-7 points

8.0%

UVU By 8-14 points

18.6%

FRES By 1-7 points

1.7%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
88
UTAH VALLEY
68
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH VALLEY
72
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UVU @ FRES 74 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.3% more
Utah Valley: 6.4 vs Fresno State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +38.7% more
Utah Valley: 19.6 vs Fresno State: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Utah Valley: 52.2% vs Fresno State: 44.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Utah Valley: 78.4% vs Fresno State: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVU Score 88.0 74
FRES Score 68.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 31.8 47.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.0 / 19.6 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 6.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 52.2 57.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 78.4 68.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 37.8 28.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.8 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 14.3 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UVU
FRES
UVU
ML
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
ATS
75% 24-8
53% 17-15
74% 23-8
74% 25-9
TTL
56% 18-14
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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