OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
12-1 | Road
109
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
4-8 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
HORNETS
100%
THUNDER
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
OKC By 1-7 points
24.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
26.8%
CHA By 1-7 points
12.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
Charlotte
105
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Charlotte
125
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+17)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
CHA @ OKC
124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025
OKC @ CHA
109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025
CHA @ OKC
116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025
OKC @ CHA
135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025
CHA @ OKC
106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.6% more
Oklahoma City: 11.3
vs
Charlotte: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Oklahoma City: 83.3%
vs
Charlotte: 80.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Oklahoma City: 49.0%
vs
Charlotte: 46.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+29.4% more
Charlotte: 15.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
114.0
109
CHA Score
105.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 34.6
38.0 / 48.0
Assists
26.3 / 25.3
23.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.2
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 49.0
39.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
80.3 / 83.3
86.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 42.4
42.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.1 / 11.3
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 12.1
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
OKC
CHA
OKC
ML
61%
60-39
70%
80-34
48%
40-44
48%
46-49
ATS
60%
59-40
73%
83-30-1
48%
40-44
48%
46-49
TTL
58%
57-42
67%
76-38
100%
84-0
100%
95-0
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