Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Cavaliers MEM @ CLE

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

4-9  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 5:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

8-5  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Cleveland)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

21.2%

Cavaliers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

MEM By 1-7 points

13.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

4.8%

CLE By 1-7 points

25.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
106
MEMPHIS
114
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 CLE @ MEM 142 - 126
Nov 15, 2025 MEM @ CLE 100 - 108
Mar 14, 2025 CLE @ MEM 133 - 124
Feb 23, 2025 MEM @ CLE 123 - 129
Apr 10, 2024 MEM @ CLE 98 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.1% more
Cleveland: 6.4 vs Memphis: 3.9
Steals (L5) +31.8% more
Cleveland: 8.9 vs Memphis: 6.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Cleveland: 44.8% vs Memphis: 41.5%
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
Memphis: 14.2 vs Cleveland: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 106.0 100
CLE Score 114.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 31.7 32.0 / 28.0
Assists 27.7 / 27.2 24.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.4 / 3.9 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 41.5 46.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 76.8 66.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 41.9 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.9 / 6.7 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 14.2 21.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MEM
CLE
MEM
ML
60% 69-46
57% 59-44
56% 55-44
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 75-37-3
63% 65-38
56% 55-44
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 68-47
70% 71-31-1
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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