TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
7-5 | Road
129
INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-11 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
PACERS
100%
RAPTORS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
TOR By 1-7 points
27.2%
TOR By 8-14 points
23.0%
IND By 1-7 points
18.6%
IND By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
110
TORONTO
Indiana
105
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
IND @ TOR
104 - 122
Jan 14, 2026
TOR @ IND
115 - 101
Nov 26, 2025
IND @ TOR
95 - 97
Nov 15, 2025
TOR @ IND
129 - 111
Feb 26, 2025
TOR @ IND
91 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.9% more
Toronto: 29.9
vs
Indiana: 22.1
Blocks (L5)
+16.3% more
Toronto: 5.3
vs
Indiana: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.4%
Toronto: 50.6%
vs
Indiana: 39.2%
Steals (L5)
+8.3% more
Toronto: 6.2
vs
Indiana: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
110.0
129
IND Score
105.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.8 / 34.7
35.0 / 23.0
Assists
22.1 / 29.9
22.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 50.6
43.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 79.9
81.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 42.1
40.0 / 46.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.2
5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.2
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
TOR
IND
TOR
ML
48%
47-50
55%
57-47
54%
45-38
55%
48-39
ATS
59%
57-40
61%
62-40-2
54%
45-38
55%
48-39
TTL
54%
52-45
60%
62-42
100%
83-0
100%
87-0
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