TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
8-6-2 | Road
3
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
9-7-1 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 1.00 | 0.957 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.957
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
PANTHERS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
FLA By 1 goal
19.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025
TB @ FLA
0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+12.2% more
Florida: 23.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 20.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.1%
Florida: 49.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.5%
Power Play % (L5)
+3.1%
Florida: 23.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 20.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+13.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.3
vs
Florida: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
3
FLA Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 15.1
7.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
49.6 / 44.5
56.1 / 43.9
Hits
23.1 / 20.6
25.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
23.4 / 20.3
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 28.6
23.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 4.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TB
FLA
TB
ML
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
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