BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
5-8-4 | Road
5
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
10-7-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 3.93 | 0.857 | -- |
| John Gibson | None-None | 4.96 | 0.815 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.93 Ldr
GAA
4.96
0.857 Ldr
Save %
0.815
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
RED WINGS
0%
SABRES
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DET By 1 goal
19.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
DET @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
BUF @ DET
5 - 4
Oct 22, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 4
Sep 27, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 5
Sep 25, 2025
BUF @ DET
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+51.9% more
Detroit: 34.2
vs
Buffalo: 22.5
Power Play % (L5)
+11.3%
Detroit: 21.0%
vs
Buffalo: 9.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.5%
Detroit: 49.3%
vs
Buffalo: 42.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+24.1% more
Buffalo: 5.6
vs
Detroit: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
5
DET Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.8 / 13.7
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
49.3 / 42.8
63.9 / 36.1
Hits
17.5 / 18.4
18.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
21.0 / 9.7
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
34.2 / 22.5
28.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 5.6
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BUF
DET
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Dylan Larkin Scores in Return to Red Wings Lineup Amid Trade Req…
Dylan Larkin Cleared to Return: Red Wings Star Set for Season De…
Alex Ovechkin Announces Final NHL Season: Capitals Legend Set fo…
Red Wings' Power Play Woes Sink Them Against Jets