Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky TNTC @ UK

TENNESSEE TECH

TENNESSEE TECHTNTC

10-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

4-5  |  Home

42
Key Game
Timothy Jones
KEY GAME

Timothy Jones

#14 | Defensive Back
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Timothy Jones None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE TECH
100%
📊
KENTUCKY
0%
TENNESSEE TECH --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Kentucky)
Tennessee TechTNTC (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Tech Cover

0.3%

Kentucky Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

TNTC By 1-6 points

0.2%

TNTC By 7-13 points

0.1%

UK By 1-6 points

0.9%

UK By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
0
TENNESSEE TECH
38
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
7
TENNESSEE TECH
45
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kentucky Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kentucky Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kentucky (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Kentucky (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 TNTC @ UK 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +72.7% more
Kentucky: 2.6 vs Tennessee Tech: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.0% more
Kentucky: 155.2 vs Tennessee Tech: 91.3
Total Yards (L5) +58.6% more
Kentucky: 358.7 vs Tennessee Tech: 226.3
First Downs (L5) +45.4% more
Kentucky: 21.5 vs Tennessee Tech: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNTC Score 0.0 10
UK Score 38.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 14.8 25.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 155.2 / 91.3 207.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 358.7 / 226.3 468.0 / 264.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNTC
--
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNTC
--
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TNTC
--
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TNTC
UK
TNTC
ML
60% 3-2
0% 0-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
0% 0-5
0% 0-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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