ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
1-1 | Road
67
USC
TROJANSUSC
2-0 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
TROJANS
0%
REDBIRDS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
ILST By 1-7 points
21.6%
ILST By 8-14 points
10.7%
USC By 1-7 points
27.2%
USC By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
69
ILLINOIS STATE
USC
72
USC
Simulated Score
Illinois State
65
ILLINOIS STATE
USC
78
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
ILST @ USC
67 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+95.0% more
USC: 6.3
vs
Illinois State: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+57.9% more
USC: 19.8
vs
Illinois State: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+21.2% more
USC: 6.1
vs
Illinois State: 5.0
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
USC: 44.0
vs
Illinois State: 37.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
69.0
67
USC Score
72.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 35.9
33.0 / 22.0
Assists
19.8 / 12.6
20.0 / 11.0
Blocks
6.3 / 3.2
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 47.5
51.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
69.9 / 62.5
66.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 37.7
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.0
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 11.8
4.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
ILST
USC
ILST
ML
52%
16-15
42%
15-21
58%
18-13
71%
24-10
ATS
68%
21-10
58%
21-15
58%
18-13
71%
24-10
TTL
68%
21-10
58%
21-15
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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