Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Hawkeyes XAV @ IOWA

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

2-1  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

2-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
📊
HAWKEYES
0%
MUSKETEERS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Iowa)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

27.4%

Hawkeyes Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IOWA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

XAV By 1-7 points

16.9%

XAV By 8-14 points

6.8%

IOWA By 1-7 points

26.8%

IOWA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
XAVIER
88
IOWA
Simulated Score
76
XAVIER
81
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 XAV @ IOWA 62 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.3% more
Iowa: 19.9 vs Xavier: 16.4
Field Goal % (L5) +13.8%
Iowa: 53.7% vs Xavier: 39.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Iowa: 42.1% vs Xavier: 37.3%
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
Xavier: 10.6 vs Iowa: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 82.0 62
IOWA Score 88.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 37.3 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 19.9 / 16.4 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 53.7 / 39.9 57.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 73.0 74.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 27.8 / 31.3 41.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.7 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 10.6 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
XAV
IOWA
XAV
ML
59% 22-15
58% 19-14
78% 28-8
72% 23-9
ATS
76% 28-9
73% 24-9
78% 28-8
72% 23-9
TTL
57% 21-16
39% 13-20
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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