Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Grizzlies CP @ MONT

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

2-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

3-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
MUSTANGS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Montana)
MustangsCP (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

30.9%

Grizzlies Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

CP By 1-7 points

18.6%

CP By 8-14 points

8.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

27.2%

MONT By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
CAL POLY
88
MONTANA
Simulated Score
65
CAL POLY
72
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o168.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 CP @ MONT 82 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.5%
Montana: 83.7% vs Cal Poly: 68.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Montana: 50.1% vs Cal Poly: 42.9%
Blocks (L5) +41.1% more
Cal Poly: 2.7 vs Montana: 1.6
Steals (L5) +33.4% more
Cal Poly: 7.0 vs Montana: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 83.0 82
MONT Score 88.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 36.2 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.9 / 14.5 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.6 / 2.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 42.9 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 83.7 / 68.3 79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 37.7 38.0 / 43.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.0 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 15.4 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
CP
MONT
CP
ML
39% 13-20
58% 19-14
73% 24-9
58% 19-14
ATS
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
58% 19-14
TTL
59% 19-13-1
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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