SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
2-1 | Road
73
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
2-1 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
AGGIES
100%
HORNETS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Sacramento State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
27.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
23.0%
UCD By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCD By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
62
SACRAMENTO STATE
UC Davis
57
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
UC Davis
73
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
SAC @ UCD
73 - 77
Dec 14, 2024
UCD @ SAC
69 - 62
Nov 26, 2023
SAC @ UCD
69 - 63
Nov 22, 2022
SAC @ UCD
71 - 82
Nov 23, 2021
UCD @ SAC
63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.4% more
Sacramento State: 5.9
vs
UC Davis: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
Sacramento State: 16.7
vs
UC Davis: 14.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Sacramento State: 42.2%
vs
UC Davis: 35.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Sacramento State: 47.7%
vs
UC Davis: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
62.0
73
UCD Score
57.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 42.2
22.0 / 31.0
Assists
14.6 / 16.7
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.9
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 47.7
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 70.4
78.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 36.1
33.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.7
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 12.8
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
SAC
UCD
SAC
ML
58%
19-14
57%
17-13
64%
21-12
87%
26-4
ATS
61%
20-13
73%
22-8
64%
21-12
87%
27-4
TTL
61%
20-13
60%
18-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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