ABILENE CHRISTIAN
WILDCATSACU
3-1 | Road
66
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
4-0 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
WILDCATS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
ACU By 1-7 points
6.8%
ACU By 8-14 points
1.7%
SFA By 1-7 points
18.6%
SFA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Abilene Christian
36
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Stephen F. Austin
49
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Abilene Christian
71
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Stephen F. Austin
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
ACU @ SFA
66 - 76
Dec 31, 2024
SFA @ ACU
62 - 57
Mar 13, 2024
ACU @ SFA
57 - 60
Feb 17, 2024
ACU @ SFA
63 - 62
Dec 2, 2023
SFA @ ACU
79 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.8
vs
Abilene Christian: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Stephen F. Austin: 36.9%
vs
Abilene Christian: 32.9%
Assists (L5)
+29.3% more
Abilene Christian: 19.5
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 13.8
Steals (L5)
+26.6% more
Abilene Christian: 8.6
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ACU Score
36.0
66
SFA Score
49.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 32.9
57.0 / 20.0
Assists
13.8 / 19.5
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 50.1
45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 74.5
58.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 38.8
29.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.3 / 8.6
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 13.7
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
ACU
SFA
ACU
ML
59%
17-12
67%
22-11
79%
23-6
70%
23-10
ATS
59%
17-12
55%
18-15
79%
23-6
70%
23-10
TTL
62%
18-11
58%
19-14
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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