TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
2-2 | Road
81
BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
2-0 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
BEARS
0%
TEXANS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baylor)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)
TAR By 1-7 points
23.0%
TAR By 8-14 points
12.2%
BAY By 1-7 points
26.8%
BAY By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tarleton State
66
TARLETON STATE
Baylor
68
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Tarleton State
60
TARLETON STATE
Baylor
85
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bears (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
TAR @ BAY
81 - 94
Nov 17, 2024
TAR @ BAY
41 - 104
Dec 6, 2022
TAR @ BAY
57 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.0% more
Baylor: 13.0
vs
Tarleton State: 10.6
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
Baylor: 36.0
vs
Tarleton State: 32.5
Blocks (L5)
+41.4% more
Tarleton State: 5.0
vs
Baylor: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+38.8% more
Tarleton State: 14.2
vs
Baylor: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TAR Score
66.0
81
BAY Score
68.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 31.0
41.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.0 / 10.6
21.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.0
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 44.5
58.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 73.4
85.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 32.5
21.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.5
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 14.2
15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
BAY
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
TAR
BAY
TAR
ML
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
66%
21-11
ATS
58%
19-14
69%
22-10
53%
17-15
66%
21-11
TTL
45%
15-18
50%
16-16
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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