NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
3-1 | Road
49
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
3-0 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
100%
GAELS
0%
MEAN GREEN
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
UNT By 1-7 points
21.6%
UNT By 8-14 points
10.7%
SMC By 1-7 points
27.2%
SMC By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
North Texas
62
NORTH TEXAS
Saint Mary's
65
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
North Texas
62
NORTH TEXAS
Saint Mary's
68
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
UNT @ SMC
49 - 80
Nov 13, 2022
UNT @ SMC
33 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+47.1% more
Saint Mary's: 17.5
vs
North Texas: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.6%
Saint Mary's: 78.8%
vs
North Texas: 71.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Saint Mary's: 48.7%
vs
North Texas: 43.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Saint Mary's: 40.4%
vs
North Texas: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNT Score
62.0
49
SMC Score
65.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 37.9
39.0 / 30.0
Assists
17.5 / 11.9
16.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.2
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 43.9
44.0 / 24.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 71.2
81.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 35.7
58.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.3 / 7.6
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 12.2
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
UNT
SMC
UNT
ML
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
82%
23-5
59%
19-13
ATS
62%
20-12
52%
17-16
83%
24-5
59%
19-13
TTL
53%
17-15
67%
22-11
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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