Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Lions TROY @ LMU

TROY

TROJANSTROY

3-0  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 10:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

4-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
TROJANS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Troy)
TrojansTROY (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

75.8%

Lions Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

TROY By 1-7 points

26.2%

TROY By 8-14 points

25.3%

LMU By 1-7 points

15.3%

LMU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
TROY
67
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
70
TROY
75
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 TROY @ LMU 63 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +57.6% more
Troy: 14.0 vs Loyola Marymount: 5.9
Blocks (L5) +19.9% more
Troy: 3.7 vs Loyola Marymount: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 12.5 vs Troy: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Loyola Marymount: 42.2% vs Troy: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 74.0 63
LMU Score 67.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 36.4 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 17.8 / 19.2 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.7 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 47.7 53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 72.3 45.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 38.7 27.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.9 / 14.0 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 10.6 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
TROY
LMU
TROY
ML
53% 17-15
59% 20-14
50% 16-16
61% 20-13
ATS
47% 15-17
65% 22-12
50% 16-16
61% 20-13
TTL
62% 20-12
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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