WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
0-3 | Road
59
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
2-0 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
100%
LANCERS
0%
LEATHERNECKS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California Baptist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)
WIU By 1-7 points
24.3%
WIU By 8-14 points
13.7%
CBU By 1-7 points
26.2%
CBU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Illinois
62
WESTERN ILLINOIS
California Baptist
63
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
Western Illinois
68
WESTERN ILLINOIS
California Baptist
73
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lancers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lancers (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
WIU @ CBU
59 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+66.7% more
California Baptist: 13.5
vs
Western Illinois: 8.1
Steals (L5)
+57.4% more
California Baptist: 5.8
vs
Western Illinois: 3.7
Rebounding (L5)
+23.6% more
California Baptist: 42.2
vs
Western Illinois: 34.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
California Baptist: 69.3%
vs
Western Illinois: 67.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIU Score
62.0
59
CBU Score
63.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 40.9
23.0 / 20.0
Assists
13.5 / 8.1
6.0 / 2.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.3
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 42.2
34.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
69.3 / 67.2
80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
42.2 / 34.2
50.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.8 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 14.3
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
WIU
CBU
WIU
ML
50%
17-17
45%
14-17
76%
25-8
61%
19-12
ATS
53%
18-16
52%
16-15
76%
25-8
61%
19-12
TTL
47%
16-18
45%
14-17
100%
33-0
100%
31-0