Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Sun Devils GONZ @ ASU

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

3-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 11:00 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

2-0  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
BULLDOGS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona State)
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

42.1%

Sun Devils Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

GONZ By 1-7 points

23.0%

GONZ By 8-14 points

12.2%

ASU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ASU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
GONZAGA
88
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
81
GONZAGA
72
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sun Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 GONZ @ ASU 77 - 65
Nov 10, 2024 ASU @ GONZ 80 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Arizona State: 10.6 vs Gonzaga: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Arizona State: 73.8% vs Gonzaga: 64.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Arizona State: 35.0% vs Gonzaga: 33.3%
Steals (L5) +32.9% more
Gonzaga: 8.5 vs Arizona State: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 86.0 77
ASU Score 88.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 33.3 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.0 / 19.8 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.4 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 50.7 36.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 64.8 57.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 41.8 31.0 / 45.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.5 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 8.7 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
GONZ
ASU
GONZ
ML
52% 17-16
71% 25-10
68% 21-10
69% 20-9
ATS
52% 17-16
69% 24-11
68% 21-10
69% 20-9
TTL
64% 21-12
57% 20-15
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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