Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Knicks MIA @ NY

MIAMI

HEATMIA

7-5  |  Road

132
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

7-4  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
HEAT --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (New York)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

2.9%

Knicks Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

MIA By 1-7 points

2.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

0.4%

NY By 1-7 points

9.3%

NY By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
MIAMI
104
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
108
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knicks (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 MIA @ NY 125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025 NY @ MIA 113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025 MIA @ NY 132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025 NY @ MIA 107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025 MIA @ NY 95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
New York: 9.3 vs Miami: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +38.7% more
Miami: 5.3 vs New York: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Miami: 15.6 vs New York: 13.2
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Miami: 29.8 vs New York: 26.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 85.0 132
NY Score 104.0 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 36.7 40.0 / 43.0
Assists 26.3 / 29.8 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 48.7 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 80.4 79.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 44.0 51.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.3 / 8.4 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 15.6 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
MIA
NY
MIA
ML
61% 114-72
48% 46-50
56% 57-45
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 124-62
51% 49-47
56% 57-45
59% 48-34
TTL
72% 133-53
59% 57-39
100% 102-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Walt Frazier Dubs Anthony Davis 'Street Clothes' as Wizards Debu…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 3 hours, 29 minutes ago
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27
si 16 hours ago
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
bleacherreport 1 day, 9 hours ago
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
yahoo 1 day, 15 hours ago