Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pelicans LAL @ NO

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

8-4  |  Road

118
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

2-9  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
LAKERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

99.7%

Pelicans Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

2.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

NO By 1-7 points

0.3%

NO By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
122
LOS ANGELES
95
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
LOS ANGELES
112
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
Los Angeles: 15.4 vs New Orleans: 13.1
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Los Angeles: 9.1 vs New Orleans: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
New Orleans: 75.2% vs Los Angeles: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 122.0 118
NO Score 95.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 33.8 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 22.6 / 21.3 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 46.6 44.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 71.8 78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 37.5 42.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.1 11.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 15.4 20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LAL
NO
LAL
ML
62% 98-61
61% 68-43
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
ATS
68% 107-51-1
61% 67-43-1
58% 48-35
54% 49-42
TTL
75% 119-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 0 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 5 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 5 hours, 55 minutes ago
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
si 12 hours, 12 minutes ago