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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

6-5  |  Road

116
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

7-3  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

98.6%

Rockets Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

5.8%

POR By 8-14 points

15.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

1.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
132
PORTLAND
110
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
112
PORTLAND
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o236.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 POR @ HOU 99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026 HOU @ POR 105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026 HOU @ POR 102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025 POR @ HOU 116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025 HOU @ POR 125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Portland: 76.1% vs Houston: 72.5%
Steals (L5) +48.2% more
Houston: 8.7 vs Portland: 5.9
Rebounding (L5) +24.9% more
Houston: 47.9 vs Portland: 38.4
Blocks (L5) +21.9% more
Houston: 4.7 vs Portland: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 132.0 116
HOU Score 110.0 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.7 / 33.7 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 26.3 / 22.4 26.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.8 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 48.5 50.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 76.1 85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 47.9 / 38.4 49.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.7 / 5.9 16.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 13.0 6.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
POR
HOU
POR
ML
61% 69-44
53% 56-49
59% 51-35
55% 49-40
ATS
62% 70-43
62% 65-39-1
59% 51-35
55% 49-40
TTL
51% 58-55
56% 58-46-1
100% 86-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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