Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Spurs GS @ SA

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

7-6  |  Road

109
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 9:30 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

8-3  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
WARRIORS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (San Antonio)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

3.6%

Spurs Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

GS By 1-7 points

2.7%

GS By 8-14 points

0.5%

SA By 1-7 points

10.7%

SA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
96
GOLDEN STATE
114
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
118
GOLDEN STATE
110
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SA @ GS 127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026 SA @ GS 126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025 GS @ SA 109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025 GS @ SA 125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025 SA @ GS 114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
San Antonio: 42.7 vs Golden State: 39.0
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
San Antonio: 50.1% vs Golden State: 43.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
San Antonio: 80.9% vs Golden State: 78.6%
Steals (L5) +34.2% more
Golden State: 11.3 vs San Antonio: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 96.0 109
SA Score 114.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.2 37.0 / 38.0
Assists 27.3 / 25.6 28.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.0 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 43.8 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 78.6 84.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 39.0 47.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.4 / 11.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 15.4 21.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
GS
SA
GS
ML
60% 111-73
55% 95-79
58% 61-44
58% 49-35
ATS
58% 107-76-1
58% 101-73
58% 61-44
58% 49-35
TTL
74% 134-47-3
77% 134-40
100% 105-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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