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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

0-2  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 6:30 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

2-0  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
SPARTANS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Michigan State)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

42.1%

Spartans Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

SJSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SJSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

MSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SAN JOSÉ STATE
72
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
62
SAN JOSÉ STATE
80
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 13, 2025 SJSU @ MSU 60 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +130.7% more
Michigan State: 4.1 vs San José State: 1.8
Assists (L5) +89.2% more
Michigan State: 16.1 vs San José State: 8.5
Rebounding (L5) +34.8% more
Michigan State: 42.3 vs San José State: 31.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
San José State: 12.9 vs Michigan State: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 70.0 60
MSU Score 72.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.5 / 32.2 24.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.1 / 8.5 25.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.1 / 1.8 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 45.4 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 73.8 68.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 31.4 45.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.8 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.9 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
SJSU
MSU
SJSU
ML
71% 25-10
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
ATS
71% 25-10
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
TTL
49% 17-18
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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