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UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

1-2  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Levien Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

COLUMBIA

LIONSCOLU

1-1  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
RIVER HAWKS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
COLUMBIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 LionsCOLU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

15.9%

Lions Cover

84.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLU +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLU)

UML By 1-7 points

23.0%

UML By 8-14 points

27.2%

COLU By 1-7 points

10.7%

COLU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
UMASS LOWELL
69
COLUMBIA
Simulated Score
72
UMASS LOWELL
68
COLUMBIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI River Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim River Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim River Hawks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 13, 2025 UML @ COLU 72 - 86
Nov 10, 2022 UML @ COLU 89 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.8% more
UMass Lowell: 6.1 vs Columbia: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
UMass Lowell: 14.6 vs Columbia: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
UMass Lowell: 74.5% vs Columbia: 70.8%
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Columbia: 13.9 vs UMass Lowell: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 79.0 72
COLU Score 69.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 31.0 42.0 / 54.0
Assists 13.9 / 12.0 15.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 41.0 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 74.5 69.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 33.3 48.0 / 25.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.6 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
COLU Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
COLU
13-13-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLU
UML
COLU
UML
ML
44% 12-15
70% 23-10
56% 15-12
58% 19-14
ATS
59% 16-11
70% 23-10
56% 15-12
58% 19-14
TTL
74% 20-7
58% 19-14
100% 27-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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