PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
2-0 | Road
87
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
2-0 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BOILERMAKERS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
PUR By 1-7 points
13.7%
PUR By 8-14 points
4.8%
ALA By 1-7 points
25.3%
ALA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue
69
PURDUE
Alabama
77
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Purdue
74
PURDUE
Alabama
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 13, 2025
PUR @ ALA
87 - 80
Nov 15, 2024
ALA @ PUR
78 - 87
Dec 9, 2023
ALA @ PUR
86 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+90.3% more
Alabama: 8.0
vs
Purdue: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+40.7% more
Alabama: 10.8
vs
Purdue: 7.7
Blocks (L5)
+38.9% more
Alabama: 5.3
vs
Purdue: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
Alabama: 40.4
vs
Purdue: 36.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PUR Score
69.0
87
ALA Score
77.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 38.0
37.0 / 43.0
Assists
17.5 / 19.3
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.8
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.4
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 75.1
80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 36.8
28.0 / 52.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.2
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 7.7
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
ALA
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
ALA
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
PUR
ALA
PUR
ML
63%
22-13
67%
26-13
58%
19-14
66%
25-13
ATS
60%
21-14
64%
25-14
58%
19-14
66%
25-13
TTL
63%
22-13
51%
20-19
100%
33-0
100%
38-0
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