Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Cavaliers TOR @ CLE

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

6-5  |  Road

126
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

8-4  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
RAPTORS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

46.0%

Cavaliers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

TOR By 1-7 points

26.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

16.9%

CLE By 1-7 points

24.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
106
TORONTO
105
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u238.5 Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u238.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 TOR @ CLE 102 - 114
May 1, 2026 CLE @ TOR 110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026 TOR @ CLE 120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026 CLE @ TOR 89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026 CLE @ TOR 104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Toronto: 48.0% vs Cleveland: 44.7%
Steals (L5) +57.2% more
Cleveland: 9.8 vs Toronto: 6.2
Blocks (L5) +46.5% more
Cleveland: 6.6 vs Toronto: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Cleveland: 11.0 vs Toronto: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 106.0 126
CLE Score 105.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 32.6 24.0 / 39.0
Assists 28.5 / 26.3 26.0 / 37.0
Blocks 6.6 / 4.5 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 48.0 45.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 72.9 81.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 45.9 / 41.6 37.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 9.8 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60% 69-46
55% 57-47
56% 55-44
55% 48-39
ATS
67% 75-37-3
61% 62-40-2
56% 55-44
55% 48-39
TTL
59% 68-47
60% 62-42
100% 99-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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