INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-10 | Road
98
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
7-5 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
SUNS
100%
PACERS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
18.6%
IND By 8-14 points
26.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
6.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
114
INDIANA
Phoenix
101
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Indiana
114
INDIANA
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PHX @ IND
123 - 108
Nov 13, 2025
IND @ PHX
98 - 133
Jan 4, 2025
PHX @ IND
108 - 126
Dec 19, 2024
IND @ PHX
120 - 111
Jan 26, 2024
PHX @ IND
131 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.7% more
Indiana: 5.2
vs
Phoenix: 3.7
Steals (L5)
+67.1% more
Phoenix: 10.8
vs
Indiana: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+18.3% more
Phoenix: 27.5
vs
Indiana: 23.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
Phoenix: 40.7%
vs
Indiana: 27.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
114.0
98
PHX Score
101.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 27.7
37.0 / 28.0
Assists
27.5 / 23.2
19.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.7 / 5.2
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 40.8
58.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 73.7
81.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 41.2
43.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.8 / 6.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 12.6
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
IND
PHX
IND
ML
57%
60-45
48%
47-50
51%
45-43
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
59-43-3
59%
57-40
51%
45-43
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
61-42-2
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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