WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
8-7-1 | Road
3
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
8-7-1 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 5.05 | 0.815 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.05
GAA
--
0.815
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
PANTHERS
100%
CAPITALS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
FLA By 1 goal
2.8%
FLA By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Florida
1
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+33.8% more
Washington: 5.4
vs
Florida: 3.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.5% more
Washington: 15.8
vs
Florida: 13.3
Hits (L5)
+37.7% more
Florida: 23.6
vs
Washington: 17.2
Power Play % (L5)
+3.9%
Florida: 15.1%
vs
Washington: 11.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
3
FLA Score
1.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 15.8
19.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
50.6 / 50.1
47.5 / 52.5
Hits
23.6 / 17.2
22.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
15.1 / 11.2
40.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.8 / 29.1
28.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 5.4
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
WSH
FLA
WSH
ML
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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