DALLAS
STARSDAL
10-4-3 | Road
7
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
10-4-2 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 6.00 | 0.667 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
6.00
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.667
1 Ldr
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
CANADIENS
0%
STARS
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MTL @ DAL
4 - 3
Nov 13, 2025
DAL @ MTL
7 - 0
Jan 16, 2025
MTL @ DAL
3 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
DAL @ MTL
2 - 1
Feb 10, 2024
DAL @ MTL
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.6% more
Montreal: 16.0
vs
Dallas: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+9.0% more
Montreal: 21.3
vs
Dallas: 19.5
Power Play % (L5)
+19.3%
Dallas: 33.6%
vs
Montreal: 14.3%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.4% more
Dallas: 27.2
vs
Montreal: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.0
7
MTL Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.0 / 13.0
13.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
52.4 / 55.9
36.4 / 63.6
Hits
21.3 / 19.5
30.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
14.3 / 33.6
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
22.2 / 27.2
24.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.5
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
DAL
MTL
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…