Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Phoenix @ Thundering Herd ELON @ MRSH

ELON

PHOENIXELON

2-0  |  Road

89
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

2-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
100%
PHOENIX --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Elon)
PhoenixELON (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phoenix Cover

90.3%

Thundering Herd Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ELON -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

ELON By 1-7 points

18.6%

ELON By 8-14 points

26.8%

MRSH By 1-7 points

6.8%

MRSH By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
78
ELON
65
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
69
ELON
76
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phoenix Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phoenix (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 ELON @ MRSH 89 - 96
Dec 28, 2024 MRSH @ ELON 59 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
Elon: 76.8% vs Marshall: 70.2%
Turnovers (L5) +79.3% more
Marshall: 14.9 vs Elon: 8.3
Blocks (L5) +58.0% more
Marshall: 6.3 vs Elon: 4.0
Assists (L5) +27.4% more
Marshall: 19.5 vs Elon: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ELON Score 78.0 89
MRSH Score 65.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 37.0 47.0 / 29.0
Assists 19.5 / 15.3 23.0 / 16.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.0 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 44.9 54.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 76.8 68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 40.5 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.2 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 8.3 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON Advantage
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
ELON
MRSH
ELON
ML
70% 21-9
61% 19-12
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
ATS
70% 21-9
55% 17-14
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
TTL
50% 15-15
52% 16-15
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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