Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Lancers JMU @ LONG

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

2-2  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

2-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
DUKES --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Longwood)
DukesJMU (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

2.3%

Lancers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

JMU By 1-7 points

1.7%

JMU By 8-14 points

0.3%

LONG By 1-7 points

8.0%

LONG By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
35
JAMES MADISON
55
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
76
JAMES MADISON
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Dukes (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 JMU @ LONG 72 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +64.8% more
Longwood: 10.5 vs James Madison: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
Longwood: 13.3 vs James Madison: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +65.1% more
James Madison: 6.2 vs Longwood: 2.2
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
James Madison: 14.8 vs Longwood: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 35.0 72
LONG Score 55.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.4 / 31.8 21.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.9 / 14.8 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.2 / 6.2 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 42.0 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 80.8 86.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 36.3 43.0 / 33.0
Steals 10.5 / 6.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.5 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
LONG
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
LONG Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
JMU
LONG
JMU
ML
65% 20-11
64% 21-12
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
ATS
68% 21-10
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
TTL
65% 20-11
67% 22-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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