NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
1-1 | Road
63
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
1-1 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
BUCCANEERS
0%
NORSE
--
BUCCANEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (East Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)
NKU By 1-7 points
13.7%
NKU By 8-14 points
4.8%
ETSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
ETSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
66
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
East Tennessee State
74
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
71
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
East Tennessee State
75
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buccaneers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Buccaneers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
NKU @ ETSU
63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.3% more
East Tennessee State: 3.2
vs
Northern Kentucky: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.2%
East Tennessee State: 68.1%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 57.9%
Assists (L5)
+30.5% more
Northern Kentucky: 15.9
vs
East Tennessee State: 11.1
Turnovers (L5)
+29.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 14.1
vs
East Tennessee State: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
66.0
63
ETSU Score
74.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 36.3
44.0 / 23.0
Assists
11.1 / 15.9
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.6
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 45.7
59.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 57.9
70.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 36.2
32.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.3
13.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 14.1
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
ETSU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
NKU
ETSU
NKU
ML
42%
14-19
53%
18-16
70%
23-10
65%
22-12
ATS
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
70%
23-10
65%
22-12
TTL
45%
15-18
68%
23-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
