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SIENA

SAINTSSIE

2-0  |  Road

66
FINAL
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ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

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75
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
BONNIES
100%
SAINTS --
BONNIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SaintsSIE (-3.5) 0 BonniesSBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

18.4%

Bonnies Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)

SIE By 1-7 points

24.3%

SIE By 8-14 points

26.8%

SBU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SIENA
69
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
65
SIENA
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bonnies (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Bonnies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 SIE @ SBU 66 - 75
Dec 17, 2024 SBU @ SIE 65 - 48
Dec 9, 2023 SIE @ SBU 56 - 89
Dec 19, 2022 SBU @ SIE 70 - 76
Nov 9, 2021 SIE @ SBU 47 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.4% more
Siena: 8.1 vs St. Bonaventure: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Siena: 74.5% vs St. Bonaventure: 72.6%
Blocks (L5) +10.5% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.3 vs Siena: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.7%
St. Bonaventure: 31.5% vs Siena: 21.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIE Score 78.0 66
SBU Score 69.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 21.8 38.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.7 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.9 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 42.3 53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 74.5 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 37.6 31.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.4 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
SIE
SBU
SIE
ML
59% 20-14
66% 23-12
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
ATS
50% 17-17
66% 23-12
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
TTL
38% 13-21
54% 19-16
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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