Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Revolutionaries AMER @ GW

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

1-1  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Charles E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

2-0  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
REVOLUTIONARIES
0%
EAGLES --
REVOLUTIONARIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (George Washington)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 RevolutionariesGW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Revolutionaries Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GW -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)

AMER By 1-7 points

18.6%

AMER By 8-14 points

8.0%

GW By 1-7 points

27.2%

GW By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
62
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
67
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
69
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
75
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Revolutionaries Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Revolutionaries Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Revolutionaries (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Revolutionaries (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 AMER @ GW 67 - 107
Dec 4, 2024 GW @ AMER 71 - 81
Dec 10, 2022 AMER @ GW 69 - 64
Nov 12, 2019 AMER @ GW 67 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.9% more
George Washington: 2.9 vs American University: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +30.2% more
George Washington: 17.3 vs American University: 13.3
Rebounding (L5) +13.4% more
George Washington: 36.8 vs American University: 32.5
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
George Washington: 48.4% vs American University: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 62.0 67
GW Score 67.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 33.3 54.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.6 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 46.7 56.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 72.3 79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 32.5 46.0 / 21.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.6 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 13.3 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
GW Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
GW
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
AMER
GW
AMER
ML
63% 22-13
62% 20-12
60% 21-14
62% 20-12
ATS
69% 24-11
59% 19-13
60% 21-14
62% 20-12
TTL
60% 21-14
59% 19-13
100% 35-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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