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NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

0-2  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
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VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

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68
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
BEACONS
0%
COLONELS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Valparaiso)
ColonelsNICH (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

46.0%

Beacons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

NICH By 1-7 points

24.3%

NICH By 8-14 points

13.7%

VAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

VAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
NICHOLLS
63
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
68
NICHOLLS
72
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beacons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beacons (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 NICH @ VAL 63 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.2% more
Valparaiso: 4.4 vs Nicholls: 3.1
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Valparaiso: 11.3 vs Nicholls: 9.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Valparaiso: 29.9% vs Nicholls: 24.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Valparaiso: 70.9% vs Nicholls: 65.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 62.0 63
VAL Score 63.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 24.1 44.0 / 40.0
Assists 11.3 / 9.2 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.9 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 65.8 74.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 37.1 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.4 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 11.9 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
NICH
VAL
NICH
ML
48% 16-17
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
68% 19-9
ATS
52% 17-16
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
68% 19-9
TTL
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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