Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Purple Aces MTSU @ EVAN

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

2-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

2-1  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
📊
PURPLE ACES
0%
BLUE RAIDERS --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Evansville)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

21.2%

Purple Aces Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EVAN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

MTSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

MTSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

EVAN By 1-7 points

25.3%

EVAN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
72
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 MTSU @ EVAN 77 - 72
Nov 13, 2024 EVAN @ MTSU 63 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Evansville: 11.8 vs Middle Tennessee: 10.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Evansville: 69.3% vs Middle Tennessee: 66.0%
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
Middle Tennessee: 5.7 vs Evansville: 3.9
Steals (L5) +17.8% more
Middle Tennessee: 8.8 vs Evansville: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 64.0 77
EVAN Score 72.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 34.5 21.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.3 / 19.7 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.7 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 48.1 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 66.0 71.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 44.2 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.8 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.4 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
MTSU
EVAN
MTSU
ML
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
ATS
66% 21-11
75% 24-8
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
TTL
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days ago
WKU Men's Basketball Kicks Off Official Practices with Revamped …
wnky 1 week ago
Former NFA Star R.J. Evans Returns Home as New AIC Men's Basketb…
theday 1 month, 3 weeks ago
Evanson Says: Pac-12 is back, but where it’s going is to be dete…
beavertonvalleytimes 2 months, 2 weeks ago