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LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

1-1  |  Road

49
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
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MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

2-1  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
TROJANS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marquette)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

46.0%

Golden Eagles Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

LR By 1-7 points

24.3%

LR By 8-14 points

13.7%

MARQ By 1-7 points

26.2%

MARQ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
73
LITTLE ROCK
74
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
63
LITTLE ROCK
82
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 LR @ MARQ 49 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.4% more
Marquette: 38.3 vs Little Rock: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
Marquette: 76.8% vs Little Rock: 65.4%
Blocks (L5) +18.8% more
Little Rock: 4.2 vs Marquette: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.2% more
Little Rock: 14.8 vs Marquette: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 73.0 49
MARQ Score 74.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 41.6 43.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.8 / 14.1 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 46.9 52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 65.4 61.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 31.8 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.3 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.8 9.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
LR
MARQ
LR
ML
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
68% 17-8
ATS
53% 17-15
45% 14-17
62% 20-12
68% 17-8
TTL
50% 16-16
58% 18-13
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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