UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
1-2 | Road
69
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
2-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
UTSA By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTSA By 8-14 points
0.0%
TXST By 1-7 points
0.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
34
UTSA
Texas State
76
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
UTSA
69
UTSA
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
UTSA @ TXST
69 - 80
Nov 17, 2023
UTSA @ TXST
62 - 72
Nov 17, 2022
TXST @ UTSA
56 - 61
Dec 7, 2019
UTSA @ TXST
77 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.9% more
Texas State: 12.6
vs
UTSA: 9.4
Assists (L5)
+14.1% more
Texas State: 15.2
vs
UTSA: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Texas State: 73.6%
vs
UTSA: 63.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Texas State: 41.8%
vs
UTSA: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
34.0
69
TXST Score
76.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 32.8
20.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.2 / 13.3
16.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.2
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 39.8
42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 63.5
77.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 41.6
47.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.1 / 10.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 9.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
UTSA
TXST
UTSA
ML
42%
13-18
83%
24-5
83%
25-5
48%
14-15
ATS
48%
15-16
72%
21-8
84%
26-5
50%
15-15
TTL
65%
20-11
66%
19-10
100%
31-0
100%
30-0