Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Colonels @ Commodores EKU @ VAN

EASTERN KENTUCKY

COLONELSEKU

1-2  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

3-0  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
COLONELS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Vanderbilt)
ColonelsEKU (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colonels Cover

1.8%

Commodores Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

EKU By 1-7 points

1.4%

EKU By 8-14 points

0.2%

VAN By 1-7 points

6.8%

VAN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
49
EASTERN KENTUCKY
70
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
65
EASTERN KENTUCKY
78
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 EKU @ VAN 62 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Vanderbilt: 16.6 vs Eastern Kentucky: 14.8
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Vanderbilt: 8.3 vs Eastern Kentucky: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Vanderbilt: 75.7% vs Eastern Kentucky: 71.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Vanderbilt: 49.3% vs Eastern Kentucky: 45.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 49.0 62
VAN Score 70.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 35.6 36.0 / 24.0
Assists 16.6 / 14.8 19.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.4 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 45.9 52.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 71.5 63.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 38.0 48.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.5 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.4 / 10.7 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1 (34.5%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.9
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
EKU
VAN
EKU
ML
69% 25-11
44% 14-18
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
ATS
78% 28-8
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
TTL
58% 21-15
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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