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WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

1-1  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

2-0  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
WILDCATS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah State)
WildcatsWEB (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

46.0%

Aggies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

WEB By 1-7 points

24.3%

WEB By 8-14 points

13.7%

USU By 1-7 points

26.2%

USU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
WEBER STATE
68
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
69
WEBER STATE
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 WEB @ USU 73 - 83
Dec 19, 2022 WEB @ USU 75 - 72
Dec 15, 2021 USU @ WEB 95 - 80
Nov 8, 2019 WEB @ USU 34 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
Utah State: 10.6 vs Weber State: 7.7
Blocks (L5) +34.9% more
Utah State: 3.1 vs Weber State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
Utah State: 18.4 vs Weber State: 15.0
Turnovers (L5) +15.1% more
Utah State: 13.3 vs Weber State: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 67.0 73
USU Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 32.2 13.0 / 31.0
Assists 18.4 / 15.0 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.3 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 45.6 45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 73.4 76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 47.5 38.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.6 / 7.7 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.6 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
WEB
USU
WEB
ML
49% 17-18
73% 22-8
66% 21-11
73% 22-8
ATS
74% 26-9
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
74% 23-8
TTL
51% 18-17
83% 25-5
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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