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UC SAN DIEGO

TRITONSUCSD

2-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 9:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

2-1  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
TRITONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UC San Diego)
TritonsUCSD (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tritons Cover

81.6%

Bulldogs Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)

UCSD By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCSD By 8-14 points

26.8%

FRES By 1-7 points

12.2%

FRES By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UC SAN DIEGO
67
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
69
UC SAN DIEGO
74
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tritons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tritons (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 UCSD @ FRES 78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
UC San Diego: 15.9 vs Fresno State: 12.0
Steals (L5) +19.2% more
UC San Diego: 9.1 vs Fresno State: 7.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
UC San Diego: 75.8% vs Fresno State: 69.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
UC San Diego: 35.9% vs Fresno State: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score 76.0 78
FRES Score 67.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 35.9 30.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.0 / 15.9 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 47.6 42.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 75.8 76.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 38.7 36.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 10.5 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -6.0
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UCSD
FRES
UCSD
ML
59% 19-13
56% 19-15
74% 23-8
65% 22-12
ATS
75% 24-8
50% 17-17
74% 23-8
65% 22-12
TTL
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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