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CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

2-1  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

2-0  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
MUSTANGS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Colorado State)
MustangsCP (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

1.4%

Rams Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CP By 1-7 points

1.1%

CP By 8-14 points

0.1%

CSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

CSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
CAL POLY
88
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
62
CAL POLY
80
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 CP @ CSU 79 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Colorado State: 17.1 vs Cal Poly: 15.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Colorado State: 82.1% vs Cal Poly: 71.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Colorado State: 52.8% vs Cal Poly: 42.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Colorado State: 40.9% vs Cal Poly: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 66.0 79
CSU Score 88.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 34.9 44.0 / 39.0
Assists 17.1 / 15.3 25.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 42.9 48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 82.1 / 71.9 95.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 39.1 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.3 / 8.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 16.6 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
CP
CSU
CP
ML
56% 19-15
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
58% 19-14
ATS
62% 21-13
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
58% 19-14
TTL
56% 19-15
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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