Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vandals @ Toreros IDHO @ USD

IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

2-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

1-1  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
VANDALS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Idaho)
VandalsIDHO (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vandals Cover

99.4%

Toreros Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDHO By 1-7 points

3.3%

IDHO By 8-14 points

10.7%

USD By 1-7 points

0.5%

USD By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
91
IDAHO
66
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
68
IDAHO
76
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vandals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vandals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 IDHO @ USD 74 - 78
Nov 24, 2024 IDHO @ USD 61 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Idaho: 41.7 vs San Diego: 34.0
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Idaho: 81.2% vs San Diego: 69.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Idaho: 46.9% vs San Diego: 44.3%
Blocks (L5) +78.7% more
San Diego: 4.0 vs Idaho: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 91.0 74
USD Score 66.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 37.5 52.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.7 / 15.7 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 46.9 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 81.2 64.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 41.7 26.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.3 / 5.1 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 12.7 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
IDHO
USD
IDHO
ML
58% 19-14
56% 20-16
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
ATS
55% 18-15
58% 21-15
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 20-13
69% 25-11
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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