Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Beavers UNT @ ORST

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

3-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 9:30 PM ET
Gill Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

2-0  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
0%
📊
BEAVERS
100%
MEAN GREEN --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Texas)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

54.0%

Beavers Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNT By 8-14 points

16.9%

ORST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORST By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
NORTH TEXAS
62
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
66
NORTH TEXAS
71
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mean Green Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mean Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 UNT @ ORST 64 - 66
Nov 25, 2024 ORST @ UNT 55 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +82.5% more
North Texas: 6.7 vs Oregon State: 1.2
Steals (L5) +30.3% more
North Texas: 8.9 vs Oregon State: 6.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
North Texas: 37.3% vs Oregon State: 30.8%
Turnovers (L5) +26.3% more
Oregon State: 14.2 vs North Texas: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 63.0 64
ORST Score 62.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 37.3 36.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.7 / 11.9 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.2 / 6.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 44.4 37.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 72.2 82.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 35.6 24.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.9 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 11.2 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
UNT
ORST
UNT
ML
45% 15-18
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
ATS
48% 16-17
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
TTL
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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