SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
2-0 | Road
81
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
2-0 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
WOLF PACK
100%
SALUKIS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
SIU By 1-7 points
25.3%
SIU By 8-14 points
26.2%
NEV By 1-7 points
13.7%
NEV By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Illinois
77
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Nevada
69
NEVADA
Simulated Score
Southern Illinois
68
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Salukis
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
SIU @ NEV
81 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.4% more
Southern Illinois: 11.7
vs
Nevada: 8.7
Assists (L5)
+25.0% more
Southern Illinois: 16.4
vs
Nevada: 12.3
Steals (L5)
+18.7% more
Southern Illinois: 7.1
vs
Nevada: 5.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
Southern Illinois: 53.8%
vs
Nevada: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIU Score
77.0
81
NEV Score
69.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.8 / 34.3
24.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.3 / 16.4
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 53.8
35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 61.5
73.0 / 66.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 39.8
52.0 / 49.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.1
4.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.7
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SIU
NEV
SIU
ML
62%
23-14
53%
17-15
73%
27-10
47%
15-17
ATS
73%
27-10
56%
18-14
73%
27-10
47%
15-17
TTL
49%
18-19
53%
17-15
100%
37-0
100%
32-0
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