ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
6-5 | Road
133
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
3-8 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
KINGS
100%
HAWKS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
SAC By 1-7 points
18.6%
SAC By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
116
ATLANTA
Sacramento
111
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Sacramento
116
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
SAC @ ATL
113 - 123
Nov 12, 2025
ATL @ SAC
133 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
ATL @ SAC
109 - 108
Nov 1, 2024
SAC @ ATL
123 - 115
Jan 22, 2024
ATL @ SAC
107 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.4% more
Atlanta: 6.0
vs
Sacramento: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+32.5% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
Sacramento: 5.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Atlanta: 75.8%
vs
Sacramento: 70.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Sacramento: 37.4%
vs
Atlanta: 35.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
116.0
133
SAC Score
111.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 35.1
36.0 / 43.0
Assists
26.3 / 26.6
22.0 / 42.0
Blocks
2.9 / 6.0
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 46.1
39.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 75.8
78.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 37.4
35.0 / 45.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.3
7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.2
20.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
ATL
SAC
ATL
ML
55%
55-45
50%
52-52
61%
50-32
55%
48-40
ATS
54%
52-45-3
53%
55-48-1
61%
50-32
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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