Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Raiders DAL @ LV

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-5-1  |  Road

33
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 8:15 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-7  |  Home

16
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
COWBOYS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

76.2%

Raiders Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

15.3%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

LV By 1-6 points

10.7%

LV By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DALLAS
17
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
17
DALLAS
28
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 DAL @ LV 33 - 16
Nov 25, 2021 LV @ DAL 36 - 33
Dec 17, 2017 DAL @ LV 20 - 17
Nov 28, 2013 LV @ DAL 24 - 31
Nov 26, 2009 LV @ DAL 7 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.2% more
Dallas: 118.6 vs Las Vegas: 72.2
Total Yards (L5) +33.8% more
Dallas: 356.0 vs Las Vegas: 235.5
First Downs (L5) +32.2% more
Dallas: 21.9 vs Las Vegas: 14.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Dallas: 237.4 vs Las Vegas: 163.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 27.0 33
LV Score 17.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 21.9 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 163.4 / 237.4 209.0 / 267.0
Rushing Yards 72.2 / 118.6 27.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 235.5 / 356.0 236.0 / 381.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 5.6 4.1 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
DAL
LV
DAL
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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