Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Bills TB @ BUF

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

6-3  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

6-3  |  Home

44
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Ray Davis
KEY GAME

Ray Davis

#7 | Running Back
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Ray Davis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Buffalo)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

30.9%

Bills Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

TB By 1-6 points

12.9%

TB By 7-13 points

9.6%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.5%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17
TAMPA BAY
24
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
TAMPA BAY
31
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 TB @ BUF 32 - 44
Aug 23, 2025 BUF @ TB 23 - 19
Oct 26, 2023 TB @ BUF 18 - 24
Dec 12, 2021 BUF @ TB 27 - 33
Oct 22, 2017 TB @ BUF 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +80.0% more
Buffalo: 1.4 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.2% more
Buffalo: 139.2 vs Tampa Bay: 94.0
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Buffalo: 378.3 vs Tampa Bay: 318.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.2% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Tampa Bay: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 17.0 32
BUF Score 24.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 19.5 19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 239.1 / 224.0 317.0 / 165.0
Rushing Yards 139.2 / 94.0 97.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 378.3 / 318.0 414.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.6 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.2 7.8 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TB
BUF
TB
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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